Ahead of the 95th Academy Awards on March 12, Associated Press Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony with some sure things and some major question marks.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: 鈥淎ll Quiet on the Western Front鈥; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
COYLE: I can't help feeling like this best picture field reflects our strange, jumbled movie world. Big-budget blockbusters, indie hits, acclaimed arthouse contenders mostly watched on video on demand, a German Netflix film and whatever it is, exactly, that you call 鈥淓lvis.鈥 Little in this race has gone as expected. Many of the once-presumed favorites 鈥 鈥淏ardo,鈥 鈥淓mpire of Light," 鈥淲hite Noise鈥 鈥 fizzled. Steven Spielberg's 鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥 , but audiences didn't show up 鈥 a strike against any contender but a fatal blow for a Spielberg movie. Academy members, seemingly, have developed less of a taste for Oscar bait and instead thrown their support behind a movie that never had any designs on the Academy Awards: 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once.鈥 In an odd, mixed-up year, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert's , cleaning up . This year, the road to best picture is paved with googly eyes.
BAHR: I usually wish for chaos when a best picture winner is locked 鈥 but 鈥淓verything Everywhere鈥 is about as chaotic (and inspired) a best picture winner as you can get. This would also make two years in a row that best picture went to films that premiered outside of the Cannes/Fall Festival stranglehold (鈥淓EAAO鈥 debuted at SXSW, 鈥淐ODA鈥 at Sundance). If anything is going to shake up the industry and the awards industrial complex, it鈥檚 something like this ( ).
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: , 鈥淏londe鈥; Cate Blanchett, 鈥淭谩谤鈥; , 鈥淭o Leslie鈥; , 鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥; Michelle Yeoh, 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once.鈥
BAHR: So, it鈥檚 down to Lydia T谩r and Evelyn Wang. This has been a race between Blanchett and Yeoh for most of the season. Both were commanding and dynamic in their roles 鈥 whose high-flying status in the classical music world begins to unravel around her and who has to save the multiverse, inhabiting different possible versions of herself from movie star to rock along the way. And both have been well decorated and celebrated this season. That their full character names are fully part of the cultural consciousness already speaks volumes. After the Screen Actors Guild Awards, it seems Yeoh is the likely victor, which will be a historic win with wide-ranging significance.
COYLE: This is indeed between Yeoh and Blanchett. And and as much as I'm kinda scared of what Lydia T谩r might do to me for saying this, this is Yeoh's year. For both her cosmic but grounded performance and for her butt-kicking career, Yeoh is more than deserved and will triumph.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Brendan Fraser, 鈥淭he Whale鈥; Colin Farrell, 鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥; Austin Butler, 鈥淓濒惫颈蝉鈥; Bill Nighy, 鈥淟iving鈥; Paul Mescal, 鈥淎ftersun.鈥
COYLE: The only thing I feel sure of in this category is that I've started to feel a little bad for . All the he's-still-talking-like-Elvis jokes were fun at first, but now I'm worried is going to get permanently typecast. Butler could very well win, though. And Farrell might even be able to pull off an upset with But I'm leaning toward Fraser here, after his SAG win. He has two powerful Oscar narratives going for him Wait, didn't I say Oscar bait was out this year? Oh, well. I'm still glad to see Mescal in this mix for
BAHR: Austin Butler will be just fine (I still think of him as Tex anyway) and who knows what voice he鈥檒l break out for 鈥淒une 2." After SAG, it seemed clearer that this year the industry is looking to honor the journeymen over the relative newcomers. And you鈥檙e right, Fraser fits the narrative 鈥 a perfect comeback story hobbled only by the divisiveness of the movie itself (another reason why it could still be Farrell鈥檚). Then again, Nighy could also be .
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Angela Bassett, 鈥淏lack Panther: Wakanda Forever鈥; Hong Chau, 鈥淭he Whale鈥; Kerry Condon, 鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥; Stephanie Hsu, 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once鈥; Jamie Lee Curtis, 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once.鈥
BAHR: Angela Bassett seemed set to 鈥渄o the thing,鈥 with Kerry Condon in the wings as a possible sub, and probably still will. But then Jamie Lee Curtis had to go and make things more interesting when she won at the Screen Actors Guild (and ).
COYLE: This had been Bassett's all the way before Curtis, Nepo baby supreme, had her magnificent moment at the SAGs. But I'm going to stick with Bassett. It could be that academy members just can't bring themselves to vote for a Marvel movie role. But Bassett gave such a powerhouse performance in 鈥淲akanda Forever鈥 and is overdue for her Oscar moment.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Brian Tyree Henry, 鈥淐auseway鈥; Judd Hirsch, 鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥; Brendan Gleeson, 鈥淏anshees of Inisherin鈥; Barry Keoghan, 鈥淏anshees of Inisherin鈥; Ke Huy Quan, 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once.鈥
COYLE: Finally, an acting lock. Quan is assured of taking this, and it should be one of the most stirring moments of the ceremony. It's been literally decades since had a notable role in a movie. The film industry should probably be asking itself some hard questions about how that could happen for an actor as endearing as Quan. But as far as absolution goes, you could do a lot worse than hand Quan an Academy Award.
BAHR: The big question is what Hollywood will do with Quan after the win. The industry has a way of patting itself on the back for feel-good moments like this and Troy Kotsur鈥檚 last year and then moving on. Let鈥檚 hope Quan鈥檚 inbox is already flooded with scripts and offers.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: 鈥淢artin McDonagh, 鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥; Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once鈥; Steven Spielberg, 鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥; Todd Field, 鈥淭谩谤鈥; Ruben 脰stlund, 鈥淭riangle of Sadness.鈥
BAHR: Awards history would suggest that The Daniels, Kwan and Scheinert, have this one locked after the Directors Guild win. At this point they鈥檙e the safe bet. But that鈥檚 not to deny the fact that their win would also be an exciting choice for the industry to celebrate the two 35-year-olds鈥 second film with their branch鈥檚 highest honor. It would be a win for original storytelling, diverse voices and just a case for just taking big, weird swings. Still, there鈥檚 a voice in my head saying that Spielberg, who has somehow only won best director twice, could be a wild card.
COYLE: This had once seemed a certainty for Spielberg who, after one of the most celebrated careers in movie history, finally phoned home with 鈥淭he Fabelmans.鈥 And unlike some previous years, he's worked the campaign trail, too. But I think the Daniels 鈥 each of whom are less than half the age of Spielberg 鈥 have emerged as the likely winners. They would be only the third directing duo to win, following Jerome Robbins and Robert Wise for 鈥淲est Side Story鈥 and Joel and Ethan Coen for 鈥淣o Country for Old Men.鈥
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: 鈥淎ll That Breathes鈥; 鈥淎ll the Beauty and the Bloodshed鈥; 鈥淔ire of Love鈥; 鈥淎 House Made of Splinters鈥; 鈥淣avalny.鈥
COYLE: I'm still smarting a little that , didn't make it into this field. But it's a strong group, including the tenderly lyrical 鈥淎ll That Breathes鈥 and But I think the most likely to win films are about the imprisoned Russian opposition leader , and about the groundbreaking photographer Nan Goldin and her crusade against the the Sackler pharma family. I give the slight edge to 鈥淣avalny,鈥 a film with obvious political poignance.
BAHR: Finally, some minor disagreement! I鈥檓 placing my bet on the Poitras. It won over 鈥淭谩谤鈥 and 鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥 at the Venice Film Festival, where the academy had a major presence. Poitras鈥 film, both intimate and epic in weaving together Goldin鈥檚 life, art and activism, is on another level. And she鈥檚 won before.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Nominees: 鈥淎ll Quiet on the Western Front鈥 (Germany); 鈥淎rgentina, 1985鈥 (Argentina); 鈥淐lose鈥 (Belgium); 鈥淓O鈥 (Poland); 鈥淭he Quiet Girl鈥 (Ireland).鈥
BAHR: There鈥檚 not a bad choice in the lot (and so many great ones that didn鈥檛 make the cut...looking at you ), but while there鈥檚 a lot of late-game love for Ireland鈥檚 small, heart-wrenching Germany鈥檚 visceral war epic 鈥淎ll Quiet on the Western Front鈥 has probably had this category in the bag for some time. Edward Berger鈥檚 film, the first ever German-language adaptation of Erich Maria Remarque鈥檚 novel, hit a nerve and transcended the international category.
COYLE: 鈥淎ll Quiet on the Western Front" is a lock. With a commanding nine nominations, it's maybe even a dark horse for best picture. But the international film award will be a bit anticlimactic. Some of the best movies of the year 鈥 Alice Diop's 鈥淪aint Omer" and, above all, 鈥 鈥 ought to have been in this bunch.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: 鈥淕uillermo del Toro鈥檚 Pinocchio鈥; 鈥淢arcel the Shell With Shoes On鈥; 鈥淧uss in Boots: The Last Wish鈥; 鈥淭he Sea Beast鈥; 鈥淭urning Red.鈥
COYLE: This is one of the easiest categories to call. 鈥 not, repeat not Robert Zemeckis' 鈥漃inocchio" 鈥 will take this easily. For me, the film's fascist allegory was far too forced. But it's a beautifully textured creation, and affection for del Toro among academy voters couldn't run deeper. A shame, though, for Marcel. But as the mollusk would say, 鈥淵ou miss a hundred percent of the shots you don't take."
BAHR: It鈥檚 del Toro鈥檚 for sure. And it's ok: However cliche, it really seems like the Marcel team is having a great time just being nominated.
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