Environmental model abused online: Air pollution from Ohio train derailment has no impact on Canada

This photo taken with a drone shows portions of a Norfolk Southern freight train that derailed on Feb. 3 in East Palestine, Ohio. Environmental experts say it's unlikely any gases released from the incident would have travelled far enough in the atmosphere to reach Canada. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

 GP

A freight train derailment in Ohio near the Pennsylvania state line earlier this month led to a controlled burn of toxic chemicals and a temporary evacuation of residents from the area. Social media posts claim a since-deleted model from the U.S. ɫֱ Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows the plume of particulate matter from the burn has travelled and dispersed all over the northeast and Canada. This is false. Radar measurements showed a much smaller and narrower plume. Additionally, anyone can use the basic version of the NOAA model online, but the federal agency’s terms of use state people should use caution when interpreting its output.

Some Twitter users posted after the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, on Feb. 3. Emergency crews conducted a controlled burn of several rail cars, which released hydrogen chloride and phosgene into the air. Social media users claimed the plume spread into Eastern Canada and that NOAA, a scientific and regulatory agency within the United States Department of Commerce that monitors atmospheric conditions, had shut down access to their site. At the time of publication, one tweet had more than 355,000 views and 3,000 retweets.

Rating: False

Environment and Climate Change Canada the train derailment is highly unlikely to have an impact on southern Ontario.

Steve Easterbrook, director of the School of the Environment at the University of Toronto, said in an email the prevailing winds actually carried the plume of smoke from the burn in a southeasterly direction toward Pittsburgh. He said it was a than in the image shared on social media.

The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory, or HYSPLIT, and its recent output remains online. The model is complex and requires experience to use correctly. Users are warned in the to be cautious in how they interpret or use the model output.

Chemical dispersion

“The concern from this accident is largely from the gases that were released in the vicinity of East Palestine, which are heavier than air, and would have stayed low,” Easterbrook said.

There's unlikely to be any significant impact farther afield than this, he added, because of the way the pollutants disperse in the air and water.

Nicole Allen, with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said in an email that typically the chemical involved in the controlled release to the air, vinyl chloride, only lasts in the atmosphere for less than 24 hours.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency said as of air quality in East Palestine was normal.

Users beware

“We urge you not to share this graphic, because it would not be helpful to the general public,” said Monica Allen, director of public affairs with NOAA Research.

The is an atmospheric transport and dispersion tool used to simulate the trajectory and dispersion of substances through the atmosphere at local and global scales.

Allen said in an email that the image shared in the social media posts show the vertical distribution of air movement away from the East Palestine train derailment incident, with the blue colours showing movement in higher altitudes (up to about 7,500 metres) and the black showing movement in lower altitudes, at a snapshot in time on the evening of Feb. 7. She said it’s helpful to understand the movement of air in the atmosphere, but it does not provide information about the pollution levels near the ground where people live and breathe. The concentration of pollution decreases dramatically downwind, she added, but this cannot be seen in this graphic.

A basic version of the model is available to the public and if the information fed into it is incorrect the results will also be wrong. Recent output from the model, , is available for a period of time and part of the results can be downloaded in multiple formats, including GIF or PDF. NOAA urges caution for unqualified people using the model.

The model also has , including not being able to incorporate the effects of byproducts from fires, explosions or chemical reactions.

A deleted page

People on social media have claimed that NOAA deleted information on its website about the distribution of the plume. There is no indication the image of this specific model was highlighted on its website.

NOAA on its website on Feb. 3, saying the local weather forecasting office had used the HYSPLIT model to monitor the situation and the resulting plume rise of the vinyl chloride. But the United States Environmental Protection Agency, which is overseeing the response, from the , not the NOAA model.

Another information page posted on the NOAA website on Feb. 8 . It was eight times between Feb. 10 and 16 before it was wiped. No version of the web page shows the image from the social media posts.

Sources

Claim can be found on Twitter () and ()

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- This article was updated on March 6, 2023, to correct a typo

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