The Rugby World Cup knockout stage has started early for Australia.
On the back foot after a the Australians cannot afford to lose their third pool game — against Wales in Lyon — otherwise they'll likely be heading for their earliest-ever exit from the tournament.
Self-introspection has gripped a proud rugby nation, which has been at a low ebb for years and is wondering whether it really was the best idea to turn in January to charismatic coach Eddie Jones to lead the Wallabies into the World Cup.
Jones has been his typical entertaining self ahead of the game — indeed for most of his nine-month second spell in charge of Australia — as he spoke in about his confidence in his players and how he thrives in this kind of backs-to-the-wall situation.
“I love it when you’ve got to try to create a team, where everyone thinks they’re going to lose, to put themselves in a position to win,” Jones said. “I don’t know if it’s a drug but that’s the rush from coaching.”
As for the Welsh, they have some leeway — but not too much — after opening with a tight win over Fiji. Lose to Australia and the pool's big three will have beaten each other, meaning their results and bonus points gained against Portugal and Georgia will determine which two teams advance.
As it stands, Wales has 10 points and both Fiji and Australia are on 6 after two games each.
In the other match on Sunday, Scotland and Tonga meet in Nice and get their second run-outs of the tournament after making losing starts.
The Scots have had two weeks to recover from a draining loss to South Africa on the opening weekend, while Tonga opened with a defeat to Ireland.
(Australia leads 31-1-13 overall, 5-2 in RWC)
Expect this one to be close. Because it usually is.
Fifteen of the last 16 test matches between Wales and Australia have been decided by a margin of just nine points or fewer. They were also side by side in the World Rugby rankings at the start of the tournament, only for the Australians to drop to a humiliating No. 9 this week.
They know each well, too, meeting at a fifth straight World Cup and the eighth time in total at this tournament — making it tied for the most-played World Cup fixture.
Their likeness even extends to the way they both parachuted in coaching greats with less than a year to go to the tournament in a sign of desperation. Jones and Warren Gatland have been around the block and have thrived on these big stages, which means this game is even harder to call.
“They’re not going to lie down and roll over for us,” Gatland said. “It’s going to be pretty close and I think it’s going to come down to the wire.”
On the back of six losses in seven tests this year, Australia has dropped flyhalf Carter Gordon and replaced him with Ben Donaldson, a fullback whose only previous test start at No. 10 was against Wales in November. Andrew Kellaway comes in at fullback for his World Cup debut and Rob Leota enters the back row.
Gatland is going with the same 15 who battled to a 32-26 victory over Fiji then were mostly rested in the win against Portugal where a potentially crucial bonus point was sealed very late.
(Scotland leads 4-1 overall, 1-0 in RWC)
Scotland handed out a 60-14 beating of Tonga during the pandemic two years ago, and won the same fixture 41-5 in their only World Cup meeting back in 1995.
With the likes of fullback Charles Piutau and center Malakai Fekitoa — both former All Blacks — now in the team, the Tongans have more to offer out wide these days but they were overrun up front in a 59-16 loss to Ireland. It's there where the Scots should profit, and they are raring to go after a two-week wait since losing 18-3 to the Springboks.
“We can now go flying into this game with our bodies fresh," said Scotland lock Scott Cummings, one of four changes from the game against the Boks
Prop Rory Sutherland also comes in, while centre Chris Harris and right wing Kyle Steyn replaced Huw Jones and Darcy Graham.
Tonga is unchanged so Sonatane Takulua — for so long the starting scrumhalf — is among the reserves for the second straight game.
“The boys are probably a little bit hungover from last week’s performance. They were devastated. We didn’t fire any shots at all," Tonga coach Toutai Kefu said. “We definitely want to put the best version of ourselves this week.”
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