WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥 In the early days and hours after the horrific Hamas attack on Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, President Joe Biden spoke with stark declarations and unqualified support for the longtime U.S. ally.
Now, a month on, that unambiguous backing has given way to the complexities and haunting casualties of , and the Biden administration is imploring Israel to rein in some of its tactics to ease .
As condemnation of the conflict has grown around the world, stoking , the Democratic president is also confronting the limits of the U.S. ability to direct the outcome 鈥 not only about the war, but what comes after it.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no going back to the status quo as it stood on October the 6th,鈥 Biden said three weeks after the attack. But even if Israel is successful in crippling or eradicating Hamas, there will also need to be a shift in Washington, where successive U.S. administrations have sought to manage the Middle East conflict and where the political will has been lacking to devise ways to end it.
And yet the path forward is uncertain, at best. 鈥淚t鈥檚 entirely unclear if there is a 鈥榤orning after,鈥欌 said Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland. He noted this could be "an extended period of violence at a different scale for many, many months or years to come."
鈥淏ut if there is something possible, they can鈥檛 just put a plan on the table,鈥 he added. 鈥淭hey have to take new American positions of their own, that are transformative, that are different, that are like something we have not seen.鈥
Telhami said after his staunch support for Israel, the president would need to take equally dramatic steps to secure buy-in from Palestinians to bring about a political resolution to the conflict, starting with reining in that Palestinians view as infringing on their future state.
In recent weeks, U.S. officials have held internal discussions and talks with allies on post-Hamas governance in Gaza, and resurrected talk of working toward a two state solution, with, as Biden expressed Sunday to Qatar鈥檚 emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, a 鈥渇uture Palestinian state where Israelis and Palestinians can live side by side with equal measures of stability and dignity.鈥
Yet there has been little progress on how to get there, and some in the Biden administration have grown increasingly worried that the mounting death toll in Gaza will make that aim even more difficult.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who last week for not doing enough to minimize harm to civilians among whom Israel says Hamas seeks shelter, has called for a return to unified Palestinian governance over the West Bank and Gaza under the beleaguered Palestinian Authority. The internationally recognized group lost control over Gaza to Hamas in 2007, and is viewed skeptically among its own populace for perceived cooperation with Israel.
Jake Sullivan, Biden鈥檚 national security adviser, on Sunday went further, laying out a vision of what the U.S. sees as a path forward, but one that still has no buy-in from key players in the region.
In an interview on CBS鈥 鈥淔ace the Nation,鈥 Sullivan said that 鈥渢he basic principles of the way forward are straightforward.鈥 That path, he said, included 鈥渘o reoccupation of Gaza, no forcible displacement of the Palestinian people. Gaza can never be used as a base for terrorism in the future and Gaza鈥檚 territory should not be reduced.鈥
The Palestinian Authority has openly dismissed that notion. 鈥淲e are not going to go to Gaza on an Israeli military tank,鈥 Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh told PBS recently.
鈥淭he Palestinian Authority is saying it doesn鈥檛 want to take on the task that the Biden administration is pushing unless it gets some kind of real commitment to a major diplomatic initiative leading to a two-state outcome," said Nathan Brown, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.
Within the Democratic Party, there are also clear signs of discord. Nearly half of Democrats disapprove of how , according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research 鈥 showing a deep divide within his party over .
In Congress, so far there is no consensus about Biden's proposal to pass an aid package that includes assistance to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, and additional money to address issues at the southern border of the U.S.
There are also emerging signs of division between the U.S. and Israeli positions on the war鈥檚 endgame, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisting that Israel will retain security control over Gaza for the long term, a stance the White House has rejected, and ruling out alternatives like an international monitoring force.
鈥淭he only force right now that can guarantee that Hamas, that terrorism is not 鈥 does not reappear and take over Gaza, again, is the Israeli military,鈥 Netanyahu told NBC鈥檚 鈥淢eet the Press.鈥 鈥淪o overall, military responsibility will have to be in Israel.鈥
And in an interview with CNN's "State of the Union," Netanyahu appeared to rule out returning Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, saying whatever group takes over must 鈥渄emilitarize鈥 and 鈥渄e-radicalize Gaza.鈥
鈥淭here has to be a reconstructed civilian authority," he said of the Palestinian Authority. "There has to be something else.鈥
More than 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, were killed when Hamas fighters launched a surprise attack on Israeli border communities, in the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. Nearly 240 鈥 including children and the elderly 鈥 remain captive in Gaza, Israeli officials say. Israel鈥檚 war to 鈥渄estroy鈥 Hamas in Gaza has killed more than 11,000 people, the Health Ministry in Hamas-run Gaza says, though it doesn鈥檛 differentiate between civilians and fighters. The U.S. believes thousands of women and children are among the dead.
Until Hamas' attack, Biden鈥檚 administration had largely relegated the region on the back burner, as it focused first on a pivot to Asia then on responding to Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine. Now, Biden faces a challenge that has splintered his political support at home and the unity of U.S. allies abroad.
鈥淐learly, Israel has the military ability to take out Hamas,鈥 said Senate Intelligence committee chairman Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., on 鈥淔ox News Sunday.鈥 鈥淏ut this is also a battle about hearts and minds -- hearts and minds in terms of maintaining support for Israel in this country, in the world and in the region.鈥
