What's at stake in Trump's hush-money criminal case? Judge to rule on key issues as trial date nears

FILE - This artist sketch depicts former President Donald Trump, far left, pleading not guilty as the Clerk of the Court reads the charges and asks him "How do you plea?" Tuesday, April 4, 2023, in a Manhattan courtroom in New York, as his attorney Joseph Tacopina, center, watches. Trump is expected in court Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, for an important hearing in his New York hush-money criminal case, which now appears increasingly likely to go to trial next month. Judge Juan Manuel Merchan is expected to rule on key pretrial issues and say for certain if the former president's trial will begin as scheduled on March 25. (Elizabeth Williams via AP, File)

NEW YORK (AP) 鈥 Former President Donald Trump is expected in court Thursday for an important hearing in his New York hush-money criminal case, which now appears increasingly likely to go to trial next month.

is set to rule on key pretrial issues and say for certain if the trial will begin as scheduled on March 25. If that happens, the New York case will be the first of Trump鈥檚 to go to trial.

Trump鈥檚 lawyers have asked Merchan to . The judge鈥檚 recent activities suggest that鈥檚 unlikely to happen. In recent weeks, court records show, Merchan has been communicating with defense lawyers and Manhattan prosecutors to plan jury selection for a March trial.

A delay might cause conflicts in Trump鈥檚 .

Trump, the Republican front-runner in his quest to return to the White House, has not been in court for the New York case , though he did where the judge warned him against posting evidence to social media or using it to attack witnesses.

Here鈥檚 a refresher on where the case stands.

WHAT IS THIS CASE ABOUT?

Trump鈥檚 New York case involves an alleged scheme to prevent during his 2016 presidential campaign.

charged Trump last year with , to hide the true nature of payments made to his then-lawyer Michael Cohen, for helping bury stories alleging Trump had extramarital sexual encounters.

The case centers on payoffs to two women, porn actor and former Playboy model , as well as to a about Trump having a child out of wedlock. Trump says he didn't have any of the alleged sexual encounters.

Cohen paid Daniels $130,000 and arranged for the to pay McDougal $150,000 in a practice known as 鈥渃atch-and-kill.鈥

The Trump Organization then reimbursed Cohen at an amount far more than what he'd spent, prosecutors said. The company logged the payments 鈥 delivered in monthly installments and a year-end bonus check 鈥 as legal expenses, prosecutors said. Over several months, Cohen said he got $420,000.

The records at issue include general ledger entries, invoices and checks that prosecutors say were falsified.

WHAT IS TRUMP CHARGED WITH?

Trump is . The charge is a Class E felony in New York, the lowest tier of felony charges in the state. It is punishable by up to four years in prison, though there is no guarantee that a conviction would result in jail time.

Because it is a state case, Trump would not be able to pardon himself if he were to become president again. Presidential pardons only apply to federal crimes.

To convict Trump of a felony, prosecutors must show he not only falsified or caused business records to be entered falsely, which would be a misdemeanor, .

Prosecutors did not specify the other crime in Trump鈥檚 indictment, but have since said that evidence shows his actions were meant to conceal campaign finance crimes.

The payments to Daniels and McDougal violated federal restrictions on corporate and individual campaign contributions, prosecutors said, and were meant to 鈥渃onceal damaging information from the voting public.鈥

Prosecutors also said that characterizing the payments to Cohen as income rather than a reimbursement amounted to a tax crime, even if it didn't result in the government getting cheated out of taxes.

Cohen pleaded guilty to a campaign finance crime . The publisher of the 春色直播 Enquirer signed a non-prosecution agreement with federal prosecutors, who considered the payment to McDougal an to Trump鈥檚 campaign.

WHAT DO TRUMP AND HIS LAWYERS SAY?

Trump has denied any wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty. He has repeatedly assailed the hush-money investigation and indictment as 鈥減olitical persecution.鈥 His lawyers argue the payments to Cohen were legitimate legal expenses and not part of any cover-up.

In their , which Merchan is to decide at Thursday鈥檚 hearing, Trump鈥檚 lawyers accused Bragg, a Democrat, of reviving a so-called 鈥渮ombie case鈥 to interfere with the Republican front-runner鈥檚 chances of retaking the White House.

Bragg鈥檚 predecessor, Cyrus Vance Jr., .

鈥淎fter a five-year meandering, halting, and roving investigation that entailed inexplicable and unconstitutional delay, the District Attorney鈥檚 Office filed a discombobulated package of politically motivated charges marred by legal defects,鈥 Trump lawyers Todd Blanche and Susan Necheles argued in their 57-page motion to dismiss the case.

WHAT DOES THE CASE MEAN FOR TRUMP?

, filed on March 30, 2023, made Trump the first former U.S. president ever to face criminal charges. Trump was subsequently indicted in and on charges that he plotted to overturn his 2020 election loss, and in for hoarding classified documents.

Despite the sting to Trump鈥檚 reputation and the spectacle of his historic arraignment last April, the New York case is arguably the least perilous of . While a guilty verdict would give him another historic moniker as the first ex-president convicted of a crime, it鈥檚 unlikely Trump would be sentenced to significant prison time.

New York court records and newspaper archives show defendants convicted of felony falsifying business records are seldom sentenced to prison for that offense alone. Often, the charge is coupled with more serious felonies like grand larceny.

In contrast, the most serious charges in Trump鈥檚 Washington, D.C. and Georgia election cases carry maximum 20-year sentences. Each of the more than 30 willful retention counts in his Florida classified documents case carries a maximum 10-year sentence.

WHAT鈥橲 AT STAKE AT THURSDAY鈥橲 HEARING?

Merchan is slated to rule on various requests from Trump鈥檚 lawyers and prosecutors, including the .

If Merchan were to grant the motion, the charges would be dropped and there would be no trial. If he denies it, Trump鈥檚 lawyers have asked for hearings to explore Constitutional and procedural issues they say 鈥減rovide alternative basis鈥 for throwing out the charges.

Those issues include claims that Trump was a target of selective prosecution, that the yearslong delay in bringing charges violated his legal rights, and that purported leaks of information about the grand jury investigation created 鈥漰olitical pressure on the prosecutors and grand jurors to indict him.鈥

, said the evidence 鈥渕ore than supports鈥 the charges. They contend that Trump is seeking special treatment and attempting to 鈥渆vade criminal responsibility鈥 because he鈥檚 a current presidential candidate.

Prosecutors have accused Trump鈥檚 lawyers of ignoring deadlines to turn over evidence and engaging in potential witness intimidation by sending Cohen a subpoena in October that sought a wide array of documents.

WHAT ELSE HAS HAPPENED?

Two big developments: Trump鈥檚 lawyers asked and they tried to get it . Both failed.

In August, , denying defense claims that he鈥檚 biased because he鈥檚 given cash to Democrats and his daughter is a Democratic political consultant. The judge did acknowledge making several small donations to Democratic causes during the 2020 campaign, including $15 to Trump鈥檚 rival Joe Biden. But, he said he is certain of his 鈥渁bility to be fair and impartial.鈥

In July, to federal court. Trump鈥檚 lawyers had argued that he couldn鈥檛 be tried in state court because the alleged conduct occurred while he was president. U.S. District Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein ruled that the hush-money case involved a personal matter, not official presidential duties.

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